Following our Coffee Break, we revisited the specifics of Thanksgiving Dinner Prices:
2024 vs. 2025 cost estimates
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According to American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), a “classic” Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people cost — in 2024 — about US$58.08 (≈ US$5.80/person). GFB+2Farm Bureau+2
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For 2025, the same survey estimates the cost at US$55.18 (≈ US$5.52/person). GFB+2KCRA+2
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That represents a ~ 5% decrease in the overall estimated cost from 2024 to 2025. GFB+2Iowa Capital Dispatch+2
What caused the change
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A major driver of the drop is the cost of the turkey: in 2025, a typical 16-lb frozen turkey was priced at about US$21.50 (≈ US$1.34/lb), which is down significantly (≈ 16%) from its 2024 price of US$25.67 (≈ US$1.60/lb) in the same survey. Farm Progress+2Food Dive+2
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Several other traditional items — like pie crusts, stuffing mix, dinner rolls, and cranberries — saw modest price reductions in 2024 which helped bring the overall 2024 cost down from 2023. TIME+2Angus +2
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For 2025, while turkey and some items helped lowering cost, certain sides and other foods (like vegetables, dairy — depending on region) saw price increases, so the savings are not uniform across all components. Iowa Capital Dispatch+2DTN Professional Follow-up+2
What to keep in mind (and limitations)
The AFBF “classic dinner” is a specific, fixed list of items. It doesn’t include more elaborate meals with extras like ham, full veggie spreads, or premium ingredients. So the $55.18 or $58.08 figures reflect a minimal / baseline Thanksgiving dinner for 10.
Individual real-world Thanksgiving meals vary widely — by region, grocery store pricing, size of the feast, premium ingredients, number of guests, side dishes, etc. So many families may spend significantly more than the AFBF “classic” cost.
While overall cost dropped from 2024 → 2025 according to AFBF, not every item became cheaper in 2025; some staples still rose in price.
What’s true: the Walmart bundle is cheaper in 2025 than in 2024
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Walmart’s 2025 meal-basket for Thanksgiving is advertised at “under $40” for 10 people—i.e. under $4 per person. Walmart Corporate News+2Axios+2
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By contrast, the 2024 version of the bundle cost about $55 (serving fewer people). FactCheck.org+2Fortune+2
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That nominal drop (~25%) in the advertised price is real — customers buying the 2025 bundle are paying less money out-of-pocket than for the 2024 bundle. FactCheck.org+2Walmart Corporate News+2
But that doesn’t mean Thanksgiving groceries overall got cheaper — or that you get the same meal
Multiple sources analyzing the bundles and broader grocery-price data raise serious caveats:
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The 2025 bundle includes fewer items. According to independent fact-checks, the 2024 basket had 21 products (29 individual items) while the 2025 version has only 15 products (22 items). FactCheck.org+2Fortune+2
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Some items were removed entirely in 2025 (onions, celery, sweet potatoes, muffin mix, pie crusts, whipped topping/pecan pie, etc.), and others downsized (e.g. only one can of cream-of-mushroom soup in 2025 vs. two in 2024). Yahoo+2Fortune+2
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The composition also shifted: many store-brand items (private-label) replace national-brand items this year — something that reduces cost but may affect variety or quality compared with the previous bundle. Yahoo+2Fortune+2
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More broadly, overall grocery price data suggests “food-at-home” inflation is continuing: overall prices rose ~2.7 % in the relevant period, per the retail data mentioned in fact-check reports. FactCheck.org+2ABC News+2
Hence — while Walmart’s promotional bundle is cheaper, that doesn’t mean a typical Thanksgiving grocery shop is cheaper. The lower price reflects a smaller and more limited basket, not a uniform decrease in food/item prices across the board.
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